The Late Conrad Leslie’s 12 Rules for Successful Speculation

Conrad Leslie (d. 12/25/18) has been described as the nation’s leading private crop/harvest forecaster. His numbers moved markets and were, in many cases, more accurate than those of the USDA.

1. Restrict your market position to those which are in keeping with sound basic market fundamentals. When season supplies are inadequate, relative to probable demand, trade only the long side of the market. When season supplies are excessive, trade only the short side. If you think the price level is correct, remain on the sidelines.

2. Never buck an established market trend. The market may know more than you know. Give up your opinion before you give up your money. Don’t sell in an uptrend, don’t buy in a downtrend.

3. Recognize that the greatest difficulty in trading is knowing when to liquidate. Most everyone knows when price moves are starting, but the point to identify is where they have stopped.

4. Mark price charts each day. Successful traders believe that visual pictures are an additional way to see and evaluate price.

5. Never establish a position in the market until you see the potential for a large profit as opposed to a small loss. Never trade in a situation where the possibilities are about in balance.

6. Be prepared mentally to make several attempts at boarding a major price move. A trader’s major market approach should be that of carrying out probing attempts which will will result in his being on board during major price moves. Be prepared to take small losses. Avoid the common thought that to take a small loss will reflect poorly on your IQ.

7. Do not trade many commodities at any one time. Some traders have so many irons in the fire that they are unable to devote a reasonable amount of attention to any one of them. Two or three are enough.

8. Do not attempt to trade in commodities about which statistical information is vague or difficult to obtain. It is preferable to trade US commodities.

9. Do not develop an overextended market position. To take either an individual or total position larger than the risk of failure justifies is to invite disaster. Plungers trade rashly and usually self destruct.

10. Restrict your trading to commodities which consistently return profits. Confine your trading to those commodities at which you are a success.

11. Commodity traders who transact business through brokerage firms should direct their efforts towards capitalizing on major price moves. Professional traders earn their livelihood by capitalizing on hourly news developments. Anyone earning a living another way should not attempt to compete in this type of day-by-day trading.

12. Go with the market as it makes new highs or new lows. The act itself indicates a basic change is taking place. Though the reasons may not be clearly recognized by the public, they are of sufficient force to establish a new price record.